KEDAH BOLEH!!!: Barisan's win in Ijok a major blow to Anwar

But former DPM cannot be written off as a political force, say analysts

By Reme Ahmad
The Straits Times

LOSING the Ijok by-election is a major setback for former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim and the opposition parties, but they cannot be written off yet, politicians and analysts say.

For the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, the euphoria from winning a tough by-election has revived talk that a general election could be held as early as this year.

Datuk Seri Anwar and the opposition had hoped to use a win in Ijok, a semi-rural constituency in Selangor, to show that he is back in the reckoning and to energise the opposition parties.

Apart from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), for which Datuk Seri Anwar is adviser, members of the conservative Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and the Chinese-based Democratic Action Party actively campaigned in Ijok.

But PKR was beaten by Barisan by a bigger margin in Saturday's by-election than in the March 2004 general election.

PKR lost to Barisan by 1,850 votes, compared to 1,649 votes in 2004.

Barisan polled 58.5 per cent of the votes while PKR received 40.1 per cent. The rest were spoilt votes.

Datuk Seri Anwar and his party have blamed the loss on alleged electoral fraud.

'Anwar was in Ijok to campaign every night and yet we won with a bigger majority. This is a sign that people do not want to listen to what Anwar has to say,' Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi said on national television late on Saturday.

'What they want is development and Barisan Nasional can give this assurance. The opposition talk is all meaningless.'

But PKR said its loss was due to Barisan pouring in RM36 million (S$16 million) worth of 'instant' projects, police intimidation of PKR campaigners and the use of 'phantom' voters.

Phantom voters refer to those who do not reside in the constituency or those who take on the identities of dead residents.

The Ijok voter turnout of 81.9 per cent was the highest in Malaysia's by-election history, which PKR said was suspicious. The voter turnout in 2004 was 75.6 per cent.

'There were voters who arrived only to find their votes used by unknown persons. There are those who had passed away and yet their votes were cast.

'We have evidence of residents (who were) promised money by Barisan Nasional after they voted for them,' PKR said in a statement.

Barisan leaders said the claims are an opposition tactic to pacify their supporters after the loss.

But they conceded that while the loss is a setback for Datuk Seri Anwar, he still remains a political foe.

'Any loss would make a party weaker. But there are people out there who see justification in Anwar's struggle. He will still have his supporters,' Umno's information chief, Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib, told The Straits Times.

Mr Yang Razali Kassim, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said: 'Clearly this is a setback for PKR, Anwar and the opposition. But to write Anwar off at this point is too premature.'

The victory, meanwhile, has raised talk in Barisan that Prime Minister Abdullah might want to call an early general election.

The polls are not due until March 2009, but there has been speculation they could be held as early as this year or early next year.

'After winning in all five by-elections, we have a strong base to think about the general election soon. We have the momentum,' said Datuk Daud Tarihep, the Member of Parliament for Kuala Selangor constituency which encompasses the Ijok state assembly seat.

Barisan's win in Ijok a major blow to Anwar

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